When Will the Vaccine Be Ready?
Looking at past vaccines to examine the current timeline
By Luca 5/17/20
Through all of this scramble to evade the seemingly everlasting threat of coronavirus, there really seems to be only one real solution: a vaccine. While other treatments have proven to be beneficial, or possibly beneficial, including antibody therapies and certain drugs, vaccines seem to be the best option we have. Health experts around the world expect COVID-19 to stay around for a while unless we provide immunity for 60-70% of the world’s population. Even with a vaccine, this sounds daunting. After all, we are already struggling to stay inside in a country where millions have filed for unemployment, protesters walk the streets hoping to “Free America”, and our government has shown its incompetency in dealing with the pandemic. Countries like Sweden, however, have tried to reach this benchmark through herd immunity alone. Sweden hasn’t actually implemented stay-at-home orders, something that might bite them in the close future. For Sweden, a smaller, more homogeneous, and more government reliant country, it could eventually be a viable solution. Herd immunity alone, however, isn't an option here in the US. It will therefore require cooperation, not just between US labs but also between labs globally. Past vaccines have involved work between labs, sharing data and findings and developing new technologies in tandem. This sort of cooperation, especially at the speed and scale needed, is key to making a vaccine quickly and efficiently. Without a vaccine we would be helpless. The virus doesn’t care about our paychecks and our yearning to get outside, and a vaccine is the only surefire way to hit that 70% immunity mark. This is not a sudden realization, however. A COVID-19 vaccine has already been thoroughly talked about in the past months. When it will arrive, however, is the issue.
The fastest vaccine ever produced and approved took four years, and so it seems nearly impossible for the world to produce a coronavirus vaccine in time. And what do I mean in time? The economy is struggling and people are restless, so pushing a vaccine in the next 6 months may be vital in keeping the country together and limiting the number of deaths. The time issue for vaccines is not in the creation but in the testing phases, which guarantee safe usage for the public. According to the FDA, here are the steps required for a vaccine to reach approval.
However, there has never been the urgency and activity as there is now, and with the immense funding and public support, the COVID-19 vaccine could break records in its development time. Currently, 100s of vaccines are in development, with 7 in clinical trials, and the government has worked with companies to fast-track approval steps and development. Moderna Therapeutics and Inovio Pharmaceuticals, two companies among many that have received funding from global organizations, have goals to create a vaccine ready for testing in 16 weeks. This would be immensely faster than the normal years it takes to do so. This is quite amazing, but we’ll have to see if it works. Inovio and other companies have had a good track record in the past. Inovio, in 2015, created a ready-for-testing vaccine for the Zika virus in just 7 months (fastest ever). However, it was never approved. Zika no longer was a huge problem and they could never receive the backing needed to run large-scale tests. In any case, it will take months after testing for the vaccine to be fully ready and out to the world. We may not see a vaccine until next winter, and we have to ask ourselves: can the world afford social distancing for the next half-year?
Well, so far the world has survived. Although many people are filing for unemployment, and a lot of businesses are closed, we have still been able to successfully run companies, employ workers, and have functional hospitals and essential services. Scientifically, the more we stay inside and social distance, the less the virus will spread. But economically, we cannot do this forever. We eventually will need to reopen more at a slow pace to facilitate everyone getting back to work, but it seems that so far holding out, in any way shape or form, could still be an option. Reentry will have to be measured, cautious, and organized if we want to remove any chance of resurgence.
In any case, we will have to see what happens next. Perhaps countries will survive by reopening, in a cautious manner. Sadly, because of the situation, the health of the world relies on the average person to do the right thing. That is kind of scary, if you ask me, but it's also a highly effective test on the human species. Will every man, woman, and child work together towards one common goal? They better, because coronavirus will not be the last of the challenges we face as a nation and world.
The fastest vaccine ever produced and approved took four years, and so it seems nearly impossible for the world to produce a coronavirus vaccine in time. And what do I mean in time? The economy is struggling and people are restless, so pushing a vaccine in the next 6 months may be vital in keeping the country together and limiting the number of deaths. The time issue for vaccines is not in the creation but in the testing phases, which guarantee safe usage for the public. According to the FDA, here are the steps required for a vaccine to reach approval.
- Before clinical trials can begin: Once a laboratory has researched and developed a potential vaccine, which includes testing it in animal models and working out manufacturing and quality control processes, it can apply to the FDA to start clinical trials.
- Phase 1 clinical trials: The vaccine is tested for safety and effectiveness in a small number (dozens) of closely monitored subjects.
- Phase 2 clinical trials: Various dosages of the vaccine are tested on hundreds of human subjects.
- Phase 3 clinical trials: Thousands of subjects are enrolled to measure the overall effectiveness of the vaccine.
- If a vaccine passes all three phases: The lab must then apply to the FDA for a license to produce and distribute the vaccine. That application is reviewed by both FDA and non-FDA scientists.
- If approved: The lab begins producing the vaccine while the FDA closely monitors production.
- Phase 4: Although at this point the vaccine may be released to the market, many vaccines continue with what's called Phase 4 studies, during which the FDA continues to review the safety and efficacy of the vaccine.
However, there has never been the urgency and activity as there is now, and with the immense funding and public support, the COVID-19 vaccine could break records in its development time. Currently, 100s of vaccines are in development, with 7 in clinical trials, and the government has worked with companies to fast-track approval steps and development. Moderna Therapeutics and Inovio Pharmaceuticals, two companies among many that have received funding from global organizations, have goals to create a vaccine ready for testing in 16 weeks. This would be immensely faster than the normal years it takes to do so. This is quite amazing, but we’ll have to see if it works. Inovio and other companies have had a good track record in the past. Inovio, in 2015, created a ready-for-testing vaccine for the Zika virus in just 7 months (fastest ever). However, it was never approved. Zika no longer was a huge problem and they could never receive the backing needed to run large-scale tests. In any case, it will take months after testing for the vaccine to be fully ready and out to the world. We may not see a vaccine until next winter, and we have to ask ourselves: can the world afford social distancing for the next half-year?
Well, so far the world has survived. Although many people are filing for unemployment, and a lot of businesses are closed, we have still been able to successfully run companies, employ workers, and have functional hospitals and essential services. Scientifically, the more we stay inside and social distance, the less the virus will spread. But economically, we cannot do this forever. We eventually will need to reopen more at a slow pace to facilitate everyone getting back to work, but it seems that so far holding out, in any way shape or form, could still be an option. Reentry will have to be measured, cautious, and organized if we want to remove any chance of resurgence.
In any case, we will have to see what happens next. Perhaps countries will survive by reopening, in a cautious manner. Sadly, because of the situation, the health of the world relies on the average person to do the right thing. That is kind of scary, if you ask me, but it's also a highly effective test on the human species. Will every man, woman, and child work together towards one common goal? They better, because coronavirus will not be the last of the challenges we face as a nation and world.